Los Azules Copper Mine Approved, LME Copper Slightly Lower on Friday [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Monday, September 29, 2025

Futures: On Friday evening, LME copper opened at $10,209/mt, initially fluctuated downward and touched a low of $10,165.5/mt, then the center of copper prices gradually moved upward and touched a high of $10,237.5/mt, subsequently maintained considerable fluctuations, and finally closed at $10,205/mt, down 0.69%, with trading volume reaching 20,100 lots and open interest reaching 298,000 lots. On Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE copper 2511 contract opened and touched a high of 82,270 yuan/mt, initially the center of copper prices moved straight down and touched a low of 81,650 yuan/mt, then maintained considerable fluctuations, and finally closed at 81,890 yuan/mt, down 0.79%, with trading volume reaching 71,600 lots and open interest reaching 217,000 lots.

[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:

(1) On September 26, Argentina's Minister of Economy announced that the Canadian mining company McEwen Copper's Los Azules copper mine project in Argentina was approved, with an investment scale of approximately $2.7 billion, and was formally included in the national "Regime for the Promotion of Major Investments" (RIGI) tax incentive plan, enjoying policy support such as reduced income tax rate, VAT exemption, and export tariff reductions. The project is located in San Juan Province and is the first approved copper mine development in the region. It is expected to commence production from 2029, with an average annual capacity of about 180,000 mt of copper, a mine life exceeding 25 years, and a peak annual production of 190,000 mt. McEwen Copper stated that the total future investment scale may increase to $3 billion.

Spot:

(1) Shanghai: On September 26, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2510 contract were reported at a discount of 70 yuan/mt to a premium of 60 yuan/mt, with the average price quoted at a discount of 5 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SMM #1 copper cathode prices were 82,320-82,650 yuan/mt. In the morning session, SHFE copper futures fluctuated in the range of 82,380-82,590 yuan/mt, the inter-month price spread basically flattened, and the import loss for the front-month SHFE copper contract quickly narrowed to within 800 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to this week, with only two trading days remaining and due to the long holiday period, it is expected that some suppliers will still sell goods at low prices at the beginning of the week, but some smelter supplies have already been booked, and the quoted price center is expected to rise.

(2) Guangdong: On September 26, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were reported at a discount of 40 yuan/mt to a premium of 100 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 70 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was reported at a discount of 40 yuan/mt to a discount of 20 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 30 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 82,490 yuan/mt, up 105 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 82,390 yuan/mt, up 115 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, copper prices continued to rise, dampening downstream restocking interest, but suppliers still refused to budge on prices, resulting in subdued overall trading.

(3) Imported copper: On September 26, warrant prices were $48-58/mt, QP October, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $46-70/mt, QP October, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $28-36/mt, QP October, with the average price flat from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in early to mid-October.

(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on September 26, the futures closing price was 82,590 yuan/mt, down 80 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the spot premiums/discounts averaged -5 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, recycled copper raw materials prices remained unchanged MoM. Guangdong bare bright copper prices were 74,700-74,900 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,011 yuan/mt, down 115 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,350 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, as the National Day holiday approaches, secondary copper rod enterprises actively stockpiled. However, amid intraday copper price fluctuations, many suppliers of recycled copper raw materials did not see a further increase in sales sentiment. Nevertheless, supported by high copper prices, the procurement of recycled copper raw materials for secondary copper rod production was relatively ideal.

(5) Inventory: On September 25, LME copper cathode inventories decreased by 25 mt to 144,400 mt; on September 26, SHFE warrant inventories decreased by 1,105 mt to 26,557 mt.

Prices: On the macro front, the US core PCE price index was flat YoY at 2.9% in August, meeting expectations. Geopolitical tensions from the stalled Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks provided support for copper prices. Additionally, news that OPEC+ might slightly increase production led to a decline in crude oil, putting pressure on copper prices. Domestically, the MIIT and seven other departments issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Nonferrous Metals Industry (2025-2026)," supporting copper prices through measures like strengthening resource security. On the fundamentals, supply side, imported copper and domestic non-registered supply were relatively ample, keeping overall spot supply loose. Demand side, high copper prices suppressed downstream stocking sentiment, leading to weak demand. Overall, copper prices are expected to find support at lower levels today but have limited upside potential.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]